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Core retail sales upside but really mixed under the hood/Mfr'g recession rolls on but with even less visibility now

Core retail sales upside but really mixed under the hood/Mfr'g recession rolls on but with even less visibility now

Peter Boockvar
Mar 17, 2025
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Core retail sales in February rose 1% m/o/m, well above the estimate of up .4%. It though follows a 1% drop in January which was revised down from an initial .8% fall. Core sales y/o/y were basically flat in February, up by .3%. Auto sales, not included in the core figure, fell by .4% m/o/m after a drop of 3.7% in January. Building materials, not captured either, saw a .2% rise but after four straight months of declines. Food services are not included too and sales at restaurants/bars dropped by 1.5% m/o/m.

The internals elsewhere were really mixed, notwithstanding the headline strength. Driving that core figure was mainly online retailing where sales rose 2.4% m/o/m, though after dropping by a like amount in January. Also, necessities outperformed with health/personal care sales higher by 1.7% m/o/m after a 1.1% fall in the month before. Also, food/beverage sales grew by .4% m/o/m.

Sales fell for electronics, clothing, sporting goods, department stores, and other miscellaneous stores. Sales of furniture were flat.

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