Some things of importance

I'm hopeful the world is a safer place today than it was just a few days ago. But of course, we await the Iranian response whether militarily and/or with the Strait.

With respect to the US crude oil rig count, it hasn't responded yet to the lift in oil prices as it fell for an 8th straight week, but by just 1 rig to 438, the least since October 2021. While geopolitics certainty was the main factor for the jump in prices over the past few weeks, the scene was set for an eventual rise anyway due to the drop in rig counts, the price around $60 was the breakeven price point for many US shale drillers, the notable drawdown in inventories seen last week and the lack of any real increase in OPEC supply post quota increases. All at the same time demand remains pretty good.

Crude Oil Rig Count

I forgot to update shipping prices late last week and after a sharp 6 week run higher due to the scramble for product around the tariff pauses, they pulled back by $1,212, or by 20%, w/o/w to $4,702 for the Shanghai to LA trip. For perspective, the price was $2,590 on May 1^st before the run higher. The Shanghai to NY route fell by 10% w/o/w, or $701, to $6,584, still about double the $3,500 that it was at on May 1st.