The jobs data rundown

Job growth in January totaled 143k, 32k below expectations but the two prior months were revised up by a combined 100k. The household survey included the changes to population growth and the BLS said the "number of unemployed changed little over the month." The U6 rate was 4% vs 4.1% in December as more jobs were added relative to the rise in the labor force. The all in U3 rate though held at 7.5%.

The BLS specifically said the fires in LA and other winter weather had "no discernible effect" on the data.

The benchmark revisions showed an average job gain of 166k in 2024 vs the last figure of 186k per month. This compares with 216k in 2023 and actually just about matches the pre Covid 2019 average monthly job gain of 165k.

The participation rate ticked up by one tenth to 62.6%. For the key 25-54 age cohort, the participation rate was 83.5%, also up one tenth m/o/m. Average hourly earnings grew by .5% m/o/m, two tenths above the forecast and the y/o/y gain was 4.1%.