The succinct economic data review

Initial jobless claims fell 10k w/o/w to 236k and that was 7k under expectations. It follows three straight weeks above 245k. This brings the 4 week average to 245k vs 246k in the week before as a 239k print falls out. Continuing claims rose to 1.974mm from 1.937mm, the most since November 2021 and thus a new cycle high.

Bottom line, while it’s good that initial claims receded after the previous month of increases, the 4 week average is still hovering around the highest level since August 2023 and as stated, its getting tougher to find a job with a 3 1/2 yr high in continuing claims.

4 week avg Initial Claims

Continuing Claims

Core durable goods orders in May were pretty strong, rising by 1.7% m/o/m, well more than the estimate of up one tenth. It does though follow a 1.4% drop in April.