Yes, a one time step up in price but.../Germany on the cusp of passing its fiscal largess package

I agree with those that argue tariffs are technically a one time step up in price via how the tax gets passed through and thus not longer term inflationary but that is just the direct impact. I believe it is more nuanced than this and possibly sows the seeds for longer term price rises in some areas of the economy. Let's look at a few possible indirect, more longer-term inflationary impacts of tariffs.

Yesterday's NAHB home builder index for March fell to just 39 from 42 as you saw and 11 points below the breakeven level. Of particular note on the demand side was the 24 print for Prospective Buyers Traffic, matching the lowest since November 2023.

Where tariffs can have more of a longer-term influence is if it raises the price of construction enough that it impacts the supply of things we need, particularly new housing which is the largest component by far in the CPI. The NAHB chief economist said yesterday "Construction firms are facing added cost pressures from tariffs. Data from the HMI March survey reveals that builders estimate a typical cost effect from recent tariff actions at $9,200 per home."

In the short term it seems that builders will have to eat that because "Uncertainty on policy is also having a negative impact on home buyers and development decisions" but once demand does come back, we'll have less housing supply. And on the multi family side as well which will lead to even higher prices.

I'll also extend this to the trucking industry after the Cass Freight shipments data came out yesterday which rebounded in February after the weakness in January. They said "While the outlook is fraught with uncertainty, and freight demand will be challenged by tariffs, we highlight a silver lining for the for-hire freight market amid rising recession risk. Elevated uncertainty may be turning the tide of private fleet capacity additions after along for-hire downturn." So, at some point one time tariffs will lead to higher trucking freight rates as capacity reductions speed up.