As tariff rates ebb/pause, consumer confidence lifts

The preliminary June UoM consumer confidence index rebounded to 60.5 from 52.2 in May and April, 57 in March, 64.7 in February and 71.7 in January. While political divergences are all over the data, it's obviously ebbed and flowed with the tariff news. The UoM said on this, "Expectations about the anticipated effects of tariffs have shaped consumers' views of the economy this year, and this month's results are no different."

Current Conditions rose to 63.7 from 58.9 while Expectations were up to 58.4 from 47.9. After going from 4.3% to 6.6% over the prior three months, one yr inflation expectations slipped back to 5.1%. The longer term 5-10 yr guess was 4.1% after peaking at 4.4% in April.

Expectations for the jobs market bounced after the recent weakness. Those that see more unemployment in the coming year fell 6 pts to 58 after going from 51 to 64 in the prior three months. Income expectations rose but remained negative and is just back to where it stood in April and March at -2.