Another good chart from Torsten/The run on autos/US shale oil production has peaked?

Another good chart from Torsten Slok, with data taken from the special questions asked in the Dallas manufacturing and services indices last week. Yeah, maybe the tariff impact will be a one-time step up in price but that's not going to make anyone feel better right now.

As we all try to figure out the economic consequences and behavior change from the trade war, Bloomberg News had a piece yesterday on the auto sector titled "Car Buyers Face Rapidly Declining Stock of Tariff-Free Vehicles." It said, "The run on showrooms has slashed new vehicle inventories by 24% compared with this time last year, which is 'one of the largest drops we've seen in several years,' said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for market researcher Cox Automotive."

Also of note, "Dealerships have 61 days' worth of cars on hand, the lowest level in nearly two years and down from a 98 day supply in January, according to the market researcher. Once that pre tariff stockpile runs dry, 'you'll see a demonstrative slowing in sales,' Smoke said."

Here is what Ford said on their business on their call: