The first June industrial figure out

In the first June industrial figure out from the NY Fed, its manufacturing index weakened to -16 from -9.2 and was 10 pts below expectations. Understanding that the internals are extremely volatile month to month I’ll just compare June with the smoothed 6 month average. New orders were -14.2 vs -4.7. Backlogs came in at -8.3 vs -.8. Inventories were +.9 vs +6.8. Employment went positive at 4.7 vs -1.6 but the workweek stayed negative at -1.5 vs -5.5. Delivery time was +1.8 vs +2.1. Prices paid were 47.8 vs 45.1 and those received was 26.6 vs 21.6.

The positive was the jump in the 6 month outlook in business activity which rose to 21.2 vs -2 in May and vs the 6 month average of 13.9. However, capital spending plans remained well below zero at -7.3 vs +3.8 average over the past 6 months. Maybe the tariff front running is done because inventories fell to -14.7 vs the half yr average of -5.9.