I guess it's a good time to be a lobbyist/What happened in Europe didn't stay in Europe/DXY has lost election gains/Earnings stuff

Here's another problem with blanket tariffs, some get special exemptions (auto sector in this case) while others don't, and the lobbyists have a field day.

The bond selloff in Europe yesterday, where the fall of the Berlin Wall brought back memories as the bund yield rose the most since then, didn't stay in Europe as yields jumped in Asia and why the US 10 yr yield is back above 4.30%. The 10 yr JGB yield was up a huge 9.3 bps to the highest since June 2009 at 1.54%. That's the biggest one day rise since August 2024. The 10 yr Australian yield was higher by 12 bps and yields were higher elsewhere in the region.

The German 10 yr yield, after its extraordinary 30 bps spike yesterday, is up another 6 bps today at 2.86%. To the famous John Maynard Keynes quote, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?", the ECB should absolutely not be cutting interest rates today as the market is mugging them with the new economic/spending reality in Europe.

The German 10 yr inflation breakeven was up 15 bps yesterday and by another 2 bps today at 1.97%. Still low of course but quite a two day rise.

I'll be hyperbolic again. The biggest financial bubble in the history of financial bubbles in terms of dollars, continues to unwind, that being in sovereign bonds that peaked when we had $18 trillion of negative yielding bonds. We are in a different time of rising rates, notwithstanding some contra rally moves.

10 yr JGB Yield

With the rise in yields around the world, again, the US dollar index is quietly at the lowest level since the day after the US presidential election.