The FOMC statement/projections rundown and a big picture point for thought
With regards to the economy, the Fed did not acknowledge the 50 bps rise in the U6 unemployment rate to 8% in February, the highest rate since October 2021 as they said again "The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months and labor market conditions remain solid." Repeating that wording is a bit lazy on their part for whoever wrote today's statement.
The inflation commentary was the same as the previous statement but they did add this when combining the labor market and inflation, "Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased." They took out today from the December statement that the mix between the two is in balance.
What I want to hear from Jay Powell at his presser is why they decided to cut QT to just $5b per month for US Treasuries from $25b. Is it just a short term adjustment until the debt ceiling issue is fully pushed out to the next few years or is this the new cadence. The MBS run off will continue as is as the Fed now doesn't like having them on its balance sheet. Chris Waller is curious too as he dissented to this move on QT, the only voting member to do so.
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