A review of home prices, consumer confidence, home sales, mfr'g all right here

Somewhat dated but persistent nonetheless is the national home price index for January from S&P CoreLogic which rose .6% m/o/m and by 4.1% y/o/y. Versus last year the gains were led by NY with a 7.8% increase followed by Chicago up 7.5% and Boston by 6.6%. Lagging is where a lot of the new building as taken place such as in Tampa (down 1.5%), Dallas, Denver and Atlanta.

S&P Global broke down the trailing 12 months into two parts and said most of the gains came in the first half of the year with prices falling by .7% in the 2nd half “as high mortgage rates and affordability constraints weighed on buyer demand and market activity.”

On the supply side, “Inventory constraints remain a challenged, particularly in legacy metro areas, where limited new construction continues to restrict supply.”

The explain for the strength in NY and Chicago is maybe reflecting “more normalized valuations relative to frothier regions, along with continued urban recovery trends post pandemic. On the other hand, Sunbelt markets that experienced sharp run ups earlier in the cycle - like Tampa and Phoenix - have seen the most pronounced slowdowns.”

Stretching this out, the national home price index is up an unbelievable 55% since February 2020. Going back even further to the early 2000’s, the boom and bust that followed, the recovery and then the last 5 years that included massive MBS Fed buying and boy did the Federal Reserve mess around with the cost of shelter to the detriment of many but to the delight of those owning.