Auto sales/Dollar General gives some good intel on the consumer/Other good stuff

After the rush to buy autos in March (17.7mm) and April (17.27mm) to save money ahead of the tariffs, May sales saw a cool down to 15.65mm. These are seasonally adjusted annualized rate figures. The estimate was 16mm. There was also less vehicles to choose from according to Wards Automotive. "The drop in inventory, which at the end of last month was down y/o/y for the first time in nearly three years, helped explain a 10% decline in incentive spending in May from April, as there was less pressure to move stock off dealer lots despite the sharp slowdown in demand. That dynamic likely continues not just in June, but into Q3, as most automakers do not currently appear anxious to raise production levels enough to fully replace declining stock levels." Sounds to me like pricing for both new and used cars will remain firm too but on the other hand we'll soon see what the demand impact this will bring.

When it comes to much lower ticket items and the value seeking consumer, this is what Dollar General had to say of note in their earnings call and whose stock had a big upside day yesterday:

"We believe our efforts are resonating with a wide range of customers as they continue to seek value in our more than 20,000 store locations around the country."

Comps were up 2.4% y/o/y in the quarter, "driven by growth of 2.7% in average basket, including relatively similar increases in average unit retail price per item and average items per basket. Customer traffic slightly decreased by .3% during the quarter, but remained strong on a two year stack as we lapped the 4.3% traffic increase from the prior year's first quarter. We are excited to see broad based category growth during the quarter with positive comp sales in each of our consumables, seasonal, home and apparel categories."

Of interest too, "During our recent customer survey work, 25% of DG customers reported having less income than they did a year ago and nearly 60% of our core customers noted that they felt the need to sacrifice on necessities in the coming year. While our core customer remains financially constrained, we have seen increased trade in activity from both middle and higher income customers."

"Our data shows that new customers this year are making more trips and spending more with us compared to new customers from last year, while also allocating more of their spend to discretionary categories. We believe these behaviors suggest we are continuing to attract higher income customers who are looking to maximize value while still shopping for items they want and need." I bolded for emphasis.