US PMI rundown, the front windshield is foggy

The March US manufacturing and services composite PMI rose to 53.5 from 51.6. It was all led though by the services sector which rose to 54.3 from 51 while manufacturing fell back below 50 at 49.8 from 52.7.

The big thing to understand is the S&P Global US services component DOES NOT include retail trade (and wholesale too) for some reason and where we know the situation has been very mixed. The ISM services index DOES include it.

With manufacturing, growth “fell back into decline after the front running of tariffs had temporarily boosted factory output in the first two months of the year.”

On services, “some of the March upturn in services was reportedly due to business picking up after adverse weather conditions had dampened activity across many states in January and February, which could prove a temporary bounce.”

Specifically on the labor market, “The upturn was led by renewed hiring in the service sector. However, even here the rate of job creation was marginal, and much weaker than at the turn of the year. Some companies reported job losses due to sluggish demand plus a wariness to hire due to the uncertain outlook.”

“Manufacturers in particular reported concerns over payroll numbers and rising costs, cutting headcounts for the first time since last October.”