Some important things of note

This week tariffs on steel and aluminum will go to 50% from 25% as we know and I again went back to look at the business response a few months ago when first initiated, and the experience of 2018. The US Chamber of Commerce wrote a piece in March 2025 titled "How the Steel and Aluminum Tariffs are Hurting US Manufacturing." They said "US steel benchmarks are now roughly twice world prices. Aluminum prices are also up sharply as more than half of US demand is met by imports, most of which come from Canada."

And, "Price hikes for industrial inputs like steel and aluminum hurt a broad swath of downstream manufacturers across the United States, from the auto and aerospace sectors to food producers and the oil and gas sector. For every job in steel production, there are roughly 80 Americans employed by manufacturers that use steel as an input, and the ratio of upstream-to-downstream employment in aluminum is 1-to-177." https://www.uschamber.com/international/how-the-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-are-hurting-u-s-manufacturing#:~:text=Tariffs%20are%20raising%20prices%20for%20steel%20and,benchmarks%20are%20now%20roughly%20twice%20world%20prices.

We'll see what further retaliation we then get from this ramping up.

The Tax Foundation wrote a piece in September 2022 titled "How the Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Harmed the Economy." The key findings:

1)"The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum raised the cost of production for manufacturers, reducing employment in those industries, raising prices for consumers, and hurting exports."

2)"The jobs 'saved' in the steel producing industries from the tariffs came at a high cost to consumers, at roughly $650,000 per job saved according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics."

3)According to Tax Foundation estimates, repealing the Section 232 tariffs would increase long-run GDP by 0.02 percent and create more than 4,000 jobs.

4)Other estimates, such as those from economists Lydia Cox and Kadee Russ, suggest that job losses from the tariffs were as high as 75,000."

Here's color on #2 from Peterson report, "tariffs would only create about 8,700 jobs in the steel industry...The section 232 tariffs would raise aggregate income in the steel industry by about $2.4 billion in 2018 but raise costs for steel consumers by about $5.6 billion. This implies a cost of nearly $650,000 for every job created."

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/section-232-tariffs-steel-aluminum/

I'll add one more thing, the cost of construction is about to jump further so building the manufacturing facilities that we want to add here to reshore production is getting much more expensive to build. Also, I'll say again, enjoy the slowdown in rental growth for renters because not only are multi family starts falling, they are about to fall much further because the cost of building apartments is going to go up even more notably.