Some things of importance

Now that everyone knows where the Strait of Hormuz is on the map (the waterway that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran use to ship most of their crude oil exports through), history shows never to chase a geopolitical move UNLESS actual supply disruption takes place. As oil is a key supply of cash to the Iranian regime, I don't see the strait being closed, unless the regime gets really desperate. China, Iran's biggest customer, would not be happy either if it were to happen and it would likely ignite a US military response. That said, no ship passing through seems safe for now from rogue firings. So, while I'm very bullish on oil prices/stocks here, a geopolitical premium is not the reason.

With regards to the gas fields in Iran that blew up, they seem to be gathering and processing facilities, along with storage units that are for domestic use and why global prices were not impacted. The Financial Times makes a great point on this over the weekend, "The attacks suggest Israel is attempting to weaken and disrupt Iran's domestic gas and fuel supply chains to cause shortages, rather than pursuing the country's oil and gas production or exports, which would rock the markets."

As for the last crude oil rig count figure before the price spike, it fell by another 3 rigs and now lower by 36 over the past 7 weeks and by 49 off the February high of the year and at the least since October 2021.

Crude Oil Rig Count

Meanwhile, with still the risk that Iran does something with the strait in a panic, it highlights the big mistake of using our Strategic Petroleum Reserve for manipulating prices for political purposes rather than what it was meant for, filling in actual supply disruptions of note.