The state of global trade continues to rest on this belief/What consumer touching companies are saying

The S&P futures went straight down again this morning after details of Tuesday's Time interview with DJT came out. "Trump tells TIME that he's still convinced tariffs are necessary. 'The bond market was getting the yips, but I wasn't,' he says, adding that he would consider it a 'total victory' if the US still has tariffs as high as 50% on foreign imports a year from now." What his vision of 'total victory' looks like is of course completely unclear and the economic damage of even 50% tariffs on China will be stark instead. While the Chinese side said they are not talking with us, "Trump says China's President Xi Jinping has called him, and that his Administration is in active talks with the Chinese to strike a deal." Either way, he's still working off the false economic premise that a trade deficit is bad and that somehow the trading partner that has the surplus with us is 'ripping us off.' So, the state of global trade rests on flawed economic thinking.

As for the negotiations with other countries, "I would say, over the next three to four weeks, and we're finished, by the way." Hopefully.

So it seems the main difference between Jay Powell and his colleague Chris Waller is the former wants to be comfortable first with lower prices sustainably after the supposed one time increase in tariff induced inflation while the latter has his attention on any rise in the unemployment rate in response to the economic slowdown currently taking place. Regardless, for decades pre-2022 where Fed rate cuts did its magic, I just don't see the same impact this time around as long rates may continue to go higher and the US dollar might go much lower on any rate cutting cycle if it's not because inflation is sustainably lower. And the $7 trillion of money market funds, plus money parked in short term bills, are going to lose interest income, something the boomers in particular have thrived off the past few years. No free lunch to rate cuts this time around I believe.

From Alphabet/Google: