Is today really the day or does this continue on?/An FX look with currency as big part of this

I believe the best outcome today at 4pm would be a tariff reciprocity agreement with our trading partners that would result in a net lowering of global tariffs. What would not be a welcome is an across the board global tariff on all US imports for the sole reason of needing to raise money to pay for the extension of the expiring tax cuts. While 'pay fors' will certainly be needed for the latter, I'd prefer spending cuts instead though there is no chance of finding enough.

Either way, it doesn't look like we'll get the finality on this issue even after today that so many of us want, particularly small and medium sized businesses that just don't have the same flexibility as larger ones to absorb any cost increases that they can't pass on.

I will say this, with tariffs such a big topic to pay attention to and it basically neutering the Fed and its monetary policy because of the inflation and economic confusion, I've talked less this year about the Fed than I've had for a long time. Refreshing but it's no fun talking about tariffs either.

Reflecting the desire to buy a new car now as to avoid the inevitable price increase (whether on imports or a domestically made vehicle that imports their parts), vehicle sales in March jumped to 17.77mm at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That was well above the estimate of 16.2mm, vs 15.49mm in March 2024 and vs 17.5mm in March 2019.

Ward's Automotive said in response, "March sales were proof that US consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs...Buyers flocking to dealer lots to beat potential price increases, combined with some pre-tariff push by automakers raising deliveries to fleet customers lifted raw volume to over a 4 yr high, not to mention a rare double digit y/o/y gain. Regardless of any coming impacts from tariffs, March's booming results will cause lower volume in the 2nd quarter dur to the additional drain to dealer inventory that, based on industry norms, was already lean prior to the month."