Succinct Summation of the Possible Good and Not Good Events of 2025/Global PMIs

Succinct Summation of the Possible Good and Not Good Events of 2025:

Good,

1)Headline GDP continues on with about 2.5% growth.

2)Inflation further decelerates led by rents that reflect reality on the ground.

3)The Fed feels they have more space to cut short rates a few more times.

4)Other central banks, including the ECB, BoE, RBA, BoC and others, cut rates again.

5)Earnings growth meets expectations of around mid teens growth and current high P/E multiples hold.

6)Trump extends the expiring 2017 tax cuts.

7)Regulatory relief on business takes hold, DOGE works some magic with government and tariffs implemented are targeted with pinpoint precision and not widespread.

8)Credit spreads remain tight and companies maintain a high level of refinancing maturing debt.

9)With a new FTC Chair, the M&A and IPO window opens wide.

10)The AI excitement and trade continues and many companies find success in integrating the tools into their businesses, enhancing productivity and efficiency.

11)The war in Ukraine ends as it does in Gaza and the Houthis are also destroyed.

12)China’s economy bottoms out as home prices stop going down and consumer spending rebounds.

13)Germany gets a new president that thru fiscal policy initiatives and a China economic rebound experiences a lift in growth which in turn helps other European economies.

Not Good,

1)The economy remains very split with upper income spending, AI CapEx and government largess the only main areas of growth.