PPI news, watching core goods prices as reflection of tariffs

March PPI unexpectedly fell 4 tenths headline vs the estimate of a rise of 2 tenths after a one tenth gain in February which was revised up by one tenth. The core rate was lower by one tenth vs the forecast of up .3% but half of that was due to a higher revision by two tenths to February. If we take out trade too, the figure was actually as expected when including the upward revision to the month before.

Versus last year, headline PPI was up 2.7%, the core rate by 3.3% and ex food, energy and trade by 3.5% vs 3.2%, 3.5% and 3.5% respectively in February.

A 4% drop in energy prices weighed on the headline and is down 6.7% y/o/y. Food prices fell too, by 2.1% m/o/m helped by a 21% drop in eggs prices after the spikes seen in the two prior months. Food prices are still up 3.7% y/o/y.

Core goods prices, which in light of tariffs is now the key figure to watch, rose .3% m/o/m for a 2nd month and by 2.4% y/o/y.