Confidence rebounds, ebbing and flowing with direction of tariffs
The May Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index rebounded to 98 from 85.7 and was 11 pts above expectations. Almost all of the improvement was seen from the Expectations component which jumped to 72.8 from 55.4 while the Present Situation rose more modestly to 135.9 from 131.1. For perspective, this overall index stood at 109.6 in October 2024, 100.1 in February 2025. After rising by 100 bps in April to 7%, one yr inflation expectations slipped back by 50 bps to a still very elevated 6.5%.
The answers to the current state of the labor market questions were mixed. Those that said jobs were Plentiful was up by .6 pts to 31.8 but fell by 2.4 pts last month. Those that said jobs were Hard to Get was up another 1.1 pts to 18.6 and that matches the most since March 2021.
Where the boost in the expectations side of confidence really was reflected was in the labor market outlook for the coming 6 months. Those expecting ‘More Jobs’ popped by 5.3 pts to a 5 month high and there was a fall in those expecting ‘fewer jobs.’ Income expectations improved too.
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