Job gains strong, at least by the first BLS calculation/Yields jumping again, just one cut priced in this yr

Job growth surprised to the upside with a headline gain of 256k vs the estimate of 165k with the private sector adding 223k of this. The two prior months were revised down by a total of 8k. Also, in the household survey, after very choppy hiring trends in the prior months, 478k net saw new jobs and exceeded the rise of 243k in the labor force which is why the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. The all in rate fell two tenths m/o/m to 7.5% which is the lowest since June.

In that household gain of 478k, 224k came from those aged 16-19 yrs old with 151k from the 25-54 yr old cohort. I can’t explain the big jump for high schoolers and post graduation hiring. Employment for those aged 55 and older fell slightly m/o/m.

Hours worked at 34.3 was as expected as was the 62.5% participation rate. The rate for the 25-54 key age group was 83.4%, down from 83.5% last month. Average hourly earnings gains of .3% m/o/m were too as forecasted and the y/o/y gain was 3.9%. Of note also, ‘job leavers’ as a % of the unemployed rose to 13.8%, a measure of the quit rate essentially and that is the highest since July 2023.

Industry wise, all of the private sector job growth came from services with the biggest contributor being private education/healthcare of 80k. Leisure/hospitality added 43k and retail too hired a net 43k after losing 29k last month. Professional business services added 28k.