Raw material prices rise to 2 yr high/"Monetary policy cannot offset the impact of a trade war"/Company comments

Post CPI and ahead of PPI, with the help of tariffs and the scramble to procure raw materials ahead of them, the CRB raw industrials index, what's a really bullish forming chart I showed yesterday, rose another 1% by days end to the highest level since February 2023. While still well off its highs of 2022, the direction is now up. We remain bullish and long commodities like gold, silver and platinum and commodity stocks in mining, oil/gas, uranium, and fertilizers.

Some of the 13 components in this index include everything from copper, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton and rubber.

CRB Raw Industrials index

Specifically with aluminum, Alcoa said this yesterday at a conference:

"We do see the tariffs creating uncertainty with our customers right now. Some customers are rushing to secure supply ahead of the tariffs, while others are playing wait and see, to see how the final tariff structure will exist. As a result, this quarter, we do have more uncertainty in both our revenue and our working capital that is more than normal. Overall though, we're expecting a very strong first quarter."

Meanwhile, wage growth remains pretty good as the Atlanta Fed released its February wage growth tracker which rose 4.3% y/o/y vs 4.1% in January, 4.2% in December and 4.3% in November. For a 'job switcher', wages were higher by 4.8%, the same pace seen in January. For a 'job stayer', they accelerated to 4.4% growth vs 4.1% in the three prior months.