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ISM mfr'g, export orders most notable component

ISM mfr'g, export orders most notable component

Peter Boockvar
May 01, 2025
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The April ISM manufacturing index remained below 50 but was little changed at 48.7 vs 49 and slightly above the estimate of 47.9. Of 18 industries asked, 11 saw growth vs 9 in March while 6 experienced a contraction.

The components were mixed but where the tariffs most showed up in was the New Export Orders figure which fell to 43.1 from 49.6 and vs the 6 month average of 49.2. It's the lowest since May 2020 and since April 2009 before then and of 18 industries surveyed, ZERO saw an increase in export orders. Imports fell to 47.1 from 50.1 and compares with the 6 month average of 49.7.

New orders rose 2 pts to 47.2 while backlogs slipped to 43.7 from 44.5. Inventories fell 2.6 pts to just above 50 at 50.8. Customer level inventories came in at 46.2 vs 46.8.

Likely reflecting the now mucked up supply chains, supplier deliveries rose to 55.2 from 53.5 (higher it goes, the slower the supply chain and vice versa) and that is the highest since June 2022. Prices paid were little changed at 69.8 vs 69.4 but at the most since June 2022. 15 of 18 industries paid more in prices, the same number seen in March.

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