Core import prices jump, reflecting front line on tariffs/Retail sales stats

May import prices, with the on again, off again tariff situation as we know, were flat m/o/m headline vs the estimate of down 2 tenths. Ex petro saw prices up .2% after a .4% rise in April. They are up 1.8% y/o/y. Of note, import prices ex food and energy popped .4% after a .5% gain in April and can be the first early signs of the impact of tariffs. They are now up 1.3% y/o/y after an .8% rise in April, and 1.1% increase in March.

Specifically, the prices of durable industrial supplies jumped by 1.2% in May after rising by 1% in April. Capital goods prices were up by .2% m/o/m after being up .7% in April. No impact yet though with the imports of autos/parts where prices were up by one tenth after a two tenths gain in April. Consumer goods prices ex autos were up by .2% m/o/m.

After going through more countless earnings calls, many companies are doing their best to mitigate the tariffs (some have more flexibility than others) and many have yet to raise prices, though said they will, but import prices won’t wait and the core rate jump over April and May is worth watching from here.