Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)The government is back open but more the end of a negative rather than an incremental positive in terms of services provided and employees getting paid.

2)With the average 30 yr mortgage rate at 6.34% for the week ended 11/7, purchase applications rose 5.8% w/o/w after a slight drop last week. Refi’s though fell 3.4% but are still up 147% y/o/y.

3)In the NY Fed’s Consumer Expectations Survey, one year inflation expectations were 3.2% vs 3.4% in September and vs 3.2% in August and 3.1% in July. Spending growth intentions rose one tenth to 4.8% and remaining in the 4.7%-5.2% range most of this year.

4)From Disney: On the parks business as we watch for clues on consumer spend, “Overall, our Experiences business delivered strong results in fiscal 2025, despite increased competition in the Orlando market. As we look to fiscal 2026, we expect segment operating income growth of high single digits compared to the prior year driven by a continued focus on operational excellence, delivering a great guest experience, and disciplined cost management.” In the current quarter we’re now in, (Q1 for them), “Bookings are up 3%...so feel good about that. And they’re also up for the year. So feel good about where demand is right now.” More on parks, demand “basically came in line with our expectations. We’ve talked about Epic in the past, in particular, as something that we knew was going to be a factor in domestic parks, and in fact, was very much in line with our expectations. If anything, it seems to be, in fact, impacting the rest of the competition down in Florida more than it’s impacting us. From a consumer perspective, we certainly feel good about it.” Finally, “In terms of demand for cruise, very, very strong, despite the fact that we’ve added as much capacity as we have. Our utilization rates are in line with what we’ve seen in the past. So we’re filling all of that capacity as quickly as we can add it.”

5)From Wynn Resorts: “Demand in the casino was healthy throughout the quarter will solid increases in both drop and handle, leading to casino revenues that were up 10%...More recently, business in the fourth quarter has seen continued momentum with drop and handle both up versus the same prior period last year. We’ve also seen notable growth in RevPAR and strong retail sales.” Also, “demand in Boston has remained healthy in October with both drop and handle above last year.” And, “Macau also delivered very strong results in the quarter, which were further aided by higher than normal VIP holds...The premium segment continues to lead the market in Macau.”

6)From Ralph Lauren: “Our strong performance through the first half of this fiscal year also gives us confidence to take up our full year guidance once again even as we remain relatively cautious in the second half of the year due to potential consumer headwinds and general volatility.” On the macro, “To date, we have not seen any meaningful changes in consumer behavior across our key consumer segments or markets. The brand remains healthy and our core consumer is resilient, especially as we continue to shift our recruiting towards more full priced, less price sensitive, higher basket sized new customers.”

7)From On Holding: Sales rose 25% y/o/y and 35% in constant currency and they said this, “This success is exceptional broad based, with significant growth contributions from across our portfolio in performance and lifestyle, footwear, and apparel, proving the global appeal of our brand.”