Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)Apartment List released its National Rent Report covering September and new leases (not renewals) fell .4% m/o/m. “This was the second consecutive m/o/m decline, as we’ve now entered the rental markets off season. It’s likely that we’ll continue to see further modest rent declines through the remainder of the year.” Also of note, “The national multifamily vacancy rate now sits at 7.1%, a record high for our index (dating back to 2017). We’re past the peak of a multifamily construction surge, but a healthy supply of new units are still hitting the market, and vacancies are still trending up.”

2)As seen in the somewhat dated July Case-Shiller home price index, price gains continue to moderate y/o/y and are down 5 months in a row m/o/m seasonally adjusted. The y/o/y price increase of 1.7% is the slowest since July 2023, though prices are still up about 50% over the past 5 years.

3)Mixed bag from the Dallas Fed’s Banking Conditions Survey: “Loan volume and demand increased in September. Credit tightening continued, but loan pricing declined. Credit standards and terms eased for residential real estate while tightening continued for the remaining loan types. Overall loan performance deteriorated slightly; however, loan performance for commercial real estate sharply improved. Bankers reported stable general business activity. Bankers’ outlooks are mixed. Survey respondents expect an acceleration in loan demand and increasing business activity six months from now but a moderate deterioration in loan performance.”

4)The August pending home sales figure (measuring contract signings of existing homes) beat expectations with a 4% m/o/m gain after a drop of .3% in July. The y/o/y change is flattish, up .5%. The NAR said “Lower mortgage rates are enabling more home buyers to go under contract. In the Midwest, low mortgage rates combined with high levels of affordability are attracting more buyers compared to other regions.”

5)This will reverse lower in October with EV tax credit expiration but in September vehicle sales totaled 16.39mm vs the estimate of 16.2mm.

6)From Paychex: “Turning to the macro environment, small business remains resilient. Our Small Business Employment Watch shows stable employment and moderating wage inflation and has over the past year, with no signs of recession.”

7)From Nike: With North America in particular, it “is building momentum through sustained brand activity across sports, leveraging our leading portfolio of sports marketing assts. North America is furthest ahead in taking steps to elevate and transform the marketplace for future growth. Running, training and basketball each delivered double digit growth. Sportswear grew in the quarter, but there is still work to do.”

8)From Carnival: “yields increased 4.6%, all of which was achieved on a same ship basis. Yields were also over a point better than guidance, again due to the strength in both close-in demand and on-board spending. Unit costs beat guidance by 1.5 pts on continued cost discipline…booking trends have continued to improve since our last update, nicely outpacing capacity growth at higher prices and setting a record for bookings made on sailings two years out. And with nearly half of 2026 already on the books at higher prices, we feel pretty good about next year.” They also saw “a continuation of strong onboard spending.”