Jobs rundown and let's be honest here

July payrolls rose by 73k, below the estimate of 104k and there were big downward revisions to the two prior months of 258k combined. June saw job growth of just 14k with the private sector contributing just 3k vs a rebound of 83k in July. The unemployment rate ticked up by one tenth to 4.2% as expected as the household survey saw a drop of 260k, more than the drop in the labor force of 38k. The all in U6 rate rose to 7.9% from 7.7% and that matches a 5 month high and is just one tenth from matching the most since October 2021.

Average hourly earnings grew by .3% m/o/m and 3.9% y/o/y about in line while the average workweek moved up to 34.3 from 34.2 and vs 34.3 in the month before. Combine the two and weekly earnings rose .6% m/o/m and 4.2% y/o/y still reflecting good income growth.

The participation rate continued to shrink at 62.2% from 62.3% and that is the lowest since November 2022. The key 25-54 yr old cohort saw its participation rate fall by one tenth too to 83.4% but still near the recent highs.