Even more Euphoric/No gov't data still but plenty of info out there and I have a lot of it here

After seeing the number of Bears in the weekly Investors Intelligence survey fall to just 13.5 last week, the lowest since January 2018, the updated Citi Panic/Euphoria index at .74 is now almost double the .41 Euphoria threshold and literally off the chart seen below. In the short term, it’s always good to be aware of one’s investing surroundings and can be currently defined as euphoric, exuberant, giddy, etc...

Not that we needed another reminder of how split in two the US economy is between the AI data center build and upper income spending vs everything else, FreightWaves basically told us what we heard from a bunch of trucking companies over the past few weeks and something that has truly been going on for the past few years.

From them in a new piece, “As someone who’s spent decades immersed in the freight and logistics industry, I’ve learned that freight data often tells the story of the broader economy long before traditional indicators catch up. Right now, that data is painting a stark picture: The US economy is entrenched in a goods recession. While consumer spending on services might be holding steady, the movement of physical goods - the lifeblood of manufacturing, retail, and industrial sectors - has ground to a halt. This isn’t speculation; it’s evident in the high frequency data we track at FreightWaves through our SONAR platform.”

After going through the last five years of traffic volume and with ‘green shoots’ appearing at the end of 2024, “2025 has delivered a gut punch...freight demand has nosedived again, dropping to levels not seen since the depths of the pandemic.”

Some more, “Of the segments that drive freight, retail is holding up far better than other sectors. We know this because freight volumes dispatched out of local distribution centers (within 100 miles) are doing okay. Those volumes are flat y/o/y, but not down. The long haul trucking segment (800+ miles), however, has fallen off a cliff. Y/o/y volumes are down a shocking 30%, a sign that the broader economy is in trouble. Long-haul trucking is more exposed to the energy, manufacturing, auto, and housing segments.”

The glass half full that they talked about is more trucking capacity is leaving the industry and will eventually be good for those that survive.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/is-the-goods-economy-in-a-recession-freight-data-suggests-so#:~:text=Key%20Takeaways%3A,consumer%20spending%20on%20physical%20goods.

Here is what one trucking company said on Friday, Werner Enterprises: