Can Jay Powell give enough dovish love that markets have priced in?

With markets having melted up, stocks, bonds, metals, etc...as we clearly know, ahead of today in the belief that Fed rate cuts are a magic elixir for everything, the question is can Jay Powell give enough dovish love to satisfy everyone. The bar is now extremely high and with inflation still stuck around 3% and financial conditions extraordinarily easy, I just don't think he clears the bar and a sell on the news outcome is a high possibility.

Meanwhile, the drop in long rates with the average 30 yr mortgage rate falling by another 10 bps w/o/w to 6.39% drove a 58% pop in refi applications w/o/w while purchase apps were higher by a much more modest 2.9%. That mortgage rate is the lowest in a year and assume the refi wave is from those who have 7%+ mortgages and those that want to do some cash outs with the high level of equity that many have in their homes. The mortgage rate though is still double where it was pre 2022.

Average 30 yr Mortgage Rate

Refi Application Index

It's not just the Fed that is meeting this week. The BoE meets tomorrow and they will sit tight at 4% especially after today's August CPI print of 3.8% y/o/y and a core rate of 3.6%, both as expected. Services inflation continues to drive the upside as it was higher by 4.7% y/o/y, though down from 5% in the month before. I'm sure the BoE would love to respond with more rate cuts in response to a sluggish UK economy but still elevated and persistent inflation is tying their hands.